{"id":5451,"date":"2016-06-01T11:00:44","date_gmt":"2016-06-01T15:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=5451"},"modified":"2017-11-16T14:38:13","modified_gmt":"2017-11-16T19:38:13","slug":"big-data-endgame-of-virtual-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=5451","title":{"rendered":"Big Data: Endgame of Virtual History"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>This article is part one of a four-part series on the future of quantification in history. For the thematic introduction to the series, please click <\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=5204\"><em>here<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>At face value, it might appear to the casual reader of <strong>Play the Past<\/strong>, that the main focus of this blog is the treatment of historical experience in the medium of games.<\/p>\n<p>This is, however, only a first-level reading of Play the Past authors. There is also an undercurrent of analysis on Play the Past that seeks to address the more complicated issue of how games and simulation are impacting the social sciences, and the discipline of History itself.<\/p>\n<p>This concern is shared by many Play the Past \u201cregulars\u201d, as well as guest writers. For example, <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/gamingthepast.net\/about\/\">historian and educator Jeremiah McCall\u2019s<\/a> very first post on Play the Past tackled the issue of historical causation in history-themed simulation games. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=94\">In his analysis of Civ City Rome<\/a>, McCall linked his practice of teaching historical concepts modeled in game mechanics, to hypothesis-making in historical research. McCall went on to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?author_name=mccall\">write many posts on Play the Past<\/a> on how to best use games in history education, and even <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Gaming-Past-Using-Secondary-History\/dp\/0415887607?ie=UTF8&amp;keywords=Jeremiah%2520McCall&amp;qid=1464713460&amp;ref_=sr_1_1&amp;sr=8-1\">published a book about the subject<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5487\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5487\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/CivCityRome.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5487 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/CivCityRome-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"Civ City Rome\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/CivCityRome-300x225.jpg 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/CivCityRome-768x576.jpg 768w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/CivCityRome.jpg 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/225;\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5487\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Civ City Rome<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Pushing the educational envelope even further, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tjowens\">Trevor Owen\u2019s<\/a> propositions for ludic pathways into scholarship &#8211; required reading if you\u2019re interested in this question &#8211; suggest <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=4365\">three ways \u201cgames media\u201d can serve historical research<\/a>: to reach broader audiences, to operationalize models of change and causation, and to breach the limitations of linear narrative. Owens\u2019 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=1495\">own playful approach to \u201cserious\u201d games with history students<\/a> suggests creative ways historians might enhance their toolbox &#8211; despite <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=778\">the many hang-ups<\/a> scholars still have toward games culture.<\/p>\n<p>On the theory front, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.samplereality.com\/\">digital media scholar Mark Sample\u2019s<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=1857\">great introduction<\/a> to \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/bogost.com\/downloads\/bogost_montfort_dac_2009.pdf\">platform studies<\/a>\u201d demonstrates how a multi-layered analysis of simulation media can also serve as a rich mode of historical investigation into technological culture. Attentive to complex issues of mediation, Sample has also explored in his writings the new culture of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=1666\">digital evidence in play spaces<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=1519\">the possibilities (and perils) of historical revisionism opened up by digital media<\/a>. In a similar vein, one of Play the Past\u2019s most prolific authors, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheTurnipMaster\" target=\"_blank\">Peter Christiansen<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?s=deterministic&amp;x=0&amp;y=0\">has critically reviewed the deterministic assumptions of \u201chistorical development\u201d<\/a> in many history-themed games, most especially strategy games. Christiansen\u2019s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=4819\">analysis of game mechanics as historical frameworks<\/a>, highlights the way many historians today distance themselves from commonly-held ideas of \u201chistorical progress\u201d.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5484\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5484\" style=\"width: 323px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GoneHome_TVprogram.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5484 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GoneHome_TVprogram-300x186.png\" alt=\"Sifting through archives: the game!\" width=\"323\" height=\"200\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GoneHome_TVprogram-300x186.png 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GoneHome_TVprogram-768x476.png 768w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/GoneHome_TVprogram.png 1024w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 323px) 100vw, 323px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 323px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 323\/200;\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5484\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sifting through archives: the game! (Gone Home, 2013)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Play the Past guest authors have also been fruitful contributors to the dialogue between game culture and historical research. Andrew Salvati\u2019s address to the International Network for the Theory of History (INTH) in 2013, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=4305\">excerpted on Play the Past<\/a>, examines the conflicted status of historical narrative, fudging the boundaries between play and research. In a similar same vein, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=4089\">Richard Bell\u2019s analysis of 2013 sleeper hit <em>Gone Home<\/em><\/a> drew attention to the game\u2019s mimicking of the process of historical research, in a dramatic setting. Perhaps more in line with the argument I will be presenting below, Jim McNally, President and Lead Designer at <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/www.longbowgames.com\/\">Longbow Games<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=2694\">previously discussed the process of \u201ccaricature\u201d<\/a> &#8211; or ideal-typing &#8211; required in designing game mechanics that reference historical facts. Finally, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=4952\">my own article on the current popularity of Civilization-style strategy games<\/a>, highlighted how deep-seated philosophies of \u201chistorical progress\u201d still run unchecked in both academic research and popular media.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>Counterfactual History: Here to Stay<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the best example of gaming culture\u2019s cross-fertilization with historical research is the burgeoning field of counterfactual thinking in academia and popular fiction, in which games and simulations play a leading role. As <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Counterfactual_history\">Wikipedia<\/a> defines it:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cCounterfactual history, also sometimes referred to as virtual history, is a form of historiography that attempts to answer &#8220;what if&#8221; questions known as <em>counterfactuals<\/em>. Black and MacRaild provide this definition: &#8220;It is, at the very root, the idea of conjecturing on what did not happen, or what might have happened, in order to understand what did happen.\u201d The method seeks to explore history and historical incidents by means of extrapolating a timeline in which certain key historical events did not happen or had an outcome which was different from that which did in fact occur. It has produced a book genre which is variously called alternative history, speculative history, or hypothetical history.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/What-If.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-5488 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/What-If-205x300.jpg\" alt=\"What If\" width=\"205\" height=\"300\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/What-If-205x300.jpg 205w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/What-If.jpg 318w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 205px) 100vw, 205px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 205px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 205\/300;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Though controversial amongst historians, the counterfactual approach has gained a sufficient foothold to become established practice, at least to the more experimentally-minded academics, and <a href=\"http:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2015\/12\/revitalizing-wargaming-is-necessary-to-be-prepared-for-future-wars\/\">top brass in military<\/a> and business schools. As a result, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/s\/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_3_15?url=search-alias%253Daps&amp;field-keywords=counterfactual+history&amp;sprefix=counterfactual+%252Caps%252C461\">many mainstream historians<\/a> in the English-speaking world today argue for a more diligent and qualified use of counterfactual \u201cmethod\u201d in historical research, rooted in historical evidence.<\/p>\n<p>But here\u2019s the thing. Beyond this overall trend &#8211; and the many themes identified above &#8211; there are harder-to-detect affinities between games \u201cmedia\u201d and historical understanding that have, in my opinion, not yet been adequately voiced. And the nexus of issues contained in them could have a decisive impact on the future of historical inquiry. These undercurrent affinities manifest themselves in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/Annales-school\" target=\"_blank\">the malaise of Total History that regularly plagues the discipline<\/a>, despite the best of intentions. Put simply, whenever historians seek to master the human event-horizon with exhaustive understanding, they inevitably default back to good old storytelling. And digital games, of all things, uniquely manifest this mania of omniscience &#8211; and its contradictory result &#8211; into one swell package.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-5476 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"OldData\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData-768x512.jpg 768w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData-1024x683.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/OldData.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/200;\" \/><\/a>It is my contention that the latest quantification craze in our culture will only prove this more so. And as I am hoping to persuade you, this below-the-radar issue of narrative \u201cbias\u201d in quantification deserves a fair hearing, considering where we are headed in both historical research and gaming culture. If there\u2019s a single salient reason why you should read on, that would be to bear witness to the coming unification of the social sciences under Big Data &#8211; or, see how games might prevent this horror, and contribute to the renewal of the humanities.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>History: Misfit of the Knowledge Economy ?<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>There are many signs that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.academia.edu\/8092285\/On_the_future_of_academic_disciplines_in_the_university_a_review_of_Andrew_Abbotts_The_Disciplines_and_the_Future_\">university disciplines are about to undergo a major shift<\/a> in the next decade or so. For one, with changes in workplace demographics and an overall increase in university populations, universities are under intense pressure to specialize in order to attract their \u201ccore clientele\u201d &#8211; either first-time students looking to complete basic or advanced degrees, or returning professionals, in the middle of a career transition. Changes in the university&#8217;s &#8220;DNA&#8221; have also been noted, from many quarters. As universities are set to become <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ox.ac.uk\/sites\/files\/oxford\/International%20Trends%20in%20Higher%20Education%202015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">the research powerhouses of our globalized knowledge economy<\/a>, they have set about to restructure core university disciplines to fit emerging vocational standards and attract top students and researchers at home and abroad.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/slideshow\/embed_code\/key\/EE4vMQSsP71p42\" width=\"427\" height=\"356\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"border:1px solid #CCC; border-width:1px; margin-bottom:5px; max-width: 100%;\" allowfullscreen src=\"about:blank\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"0\"> <\/iframe> <\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:5px\"> <strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/OECDEDU\/oecd-mihaylo-porto-alegre-final\" title=\"The Future of Higher Education - Four OECD Scenarios\" target=\"_blank\">The Future of Higher Education &#8211; Four OECD Scenarios<\/a> <\/strong> from <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.slideshare.net\/OECDEDU\" target=\"_blank\">EduSkills OECD<\/a><\/strong> <\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/digit_humanities.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-5474 size-medium lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/digit_humanities-300x205.png\" alt=\"digit_humanities\" width=\"300\" height=\"205\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/digit_humanities-300x205.png 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/digit_humanities.png 609w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/205;\" \/><\/a>Now for the &#8220;trickle-down&#8221; effects. The structure of research funding, and the competition over university funds has also caused a lot of soul-searching for those traditional disciplines not attached to professional training, or \u201cfundamental\u201d research &#8211; namely, <a href=\"http:\/\/tedxtalks.ted.com\/video\/Practicing-the-Humanities-Amand\">the humanities<\/a>. In order to preserve themselves from the fate <a href=\"http:\/\/time.com\/4035819\/japan-university-liberal-arts-humanities-social-sciences-cuts\/\">of their Japanese brethren<\/a>, traditional humanities disciplines have attempted a face-lift to keep up with the times: witness the rise of \u201cdigital humanities\u201d <a href=\"http:\/\/shc.stanford.edu\/digital-humanities\">departments<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Digital_Humanities_conference\">conferences<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/eadh.org\/\">associations<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/adho.org\/\">advocacy groups<\/a>. For the moment, the humanities are staying \u201ccurrent\u201d, and are being sold to career-minded folks as unique pathways to complex workplace \u201csoft\u201d skills.<\/p>\n<p>Amidst this turmoil, it is no secret that the discipline of history has been doing a lot of soul-searching. Interestingly, this is not directly tied to the structural changes listed above, but rather to the dual status of history as <em>both<\/em> a social science <em>and<\/em> a humanities discipline. The chaotic trends in our global economy and techno-culture are only exacerbating the crisis long-felt in history departments. We only need to look at how the discipline describes itself, to find the innumerable fault lines cracking the edifice. Indeed, take a \u201cIntroduction to Historiography\u201d course in any major university, and you\u2019ll be confronted with the following (simplified) picture of the discipline:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Until the nineteenth century, \u201chistory\u201d was for the most part a specialized branch of rhetoric destined for elite consumption.\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_5485\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5485\" style=\"width: 263px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5485 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke-263x300.jpg\" alt=\"Von Ranke: &quot;Historians! I bring ye (Prussian) discipline!&quot;\" width=\"263\" height=\"300\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke-263x300.jpg 263w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke-768x876.jpg 768w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke-898x1024.jpg 898w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/vonranke.jpg 1403w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 263px) 100vw, 263px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 263px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 263\/300;\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5485\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Von Ranke: &#8220;Historians! I bring ye (Prussian) discipline!&#8221;<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/li>\n<li>History turned into a profession in the nineteenth century by claiming for itself the status of a \u201cscience\u201d. In order to do so, its main practitioners had to <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Leopold_von_Ranke\">devise of standards for writing objective history<\/a>. To bolster the legitimacy of the modern nation-state, historical production also sought a more mainstream audience, beyond national elites.<\/li>\n<li>From <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Historical_materialism\">historical materialism<\/a>, to <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Annales_School\"><em>long dur\u00e9e<\/em> social history<\/a>, to \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cliometrics\">cliometrics<\/a>\u201d: every major new \u201cschool\u201d of historical research in the twentieth century repudiated its nineteenth-century forebears as \u201cpositivistic\u201d (i.e. falsely factual), while promoting new ways of making history\u2026 more \u201cobjective\u201d. From the 1930s onwards, historical readership split into professional and enlightened amateur audiences.<\/li>\n<li>Postmodern critics from the 1970s onwards emphasized <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Metahistory\">the narrative nature of all historical writing<\/a>, and the partiality of every historical fact. The discipline of history has since become fragmented into various camps &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cultural_history\">cultural history<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Social_history\">new social history<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Microhistory\">microhistory<\/a>, etc. &#8211; and succumbed to hyper-specialization. Outside of academia, historical \u201cconsumption\u201d is now for the most part <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.ca\/Consuming-History-Historians-Heritage-Contemporary\/dp\/0415399459\" target=\"_blank\">a mass culture phenomenon<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Historians of the World, Unite!<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Slow moving institutions like universities aren\u2019t necessarily the best places to see the coming tidal waves of change. But to the few professional historians who have sought to analyze the deeper trends of institutional change, the following picture has become evident: history is poised to become <em>either<\/em> a fully-fledged social science &#8211; and be invited to the policy table &#8211; <em>or<\/em> go the way of \u201cdigital humanities\u201d, and continue to argue its \u201crelevancy\u201d in the face of diminishing funding.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/historymanifesto.cambridge.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-5475 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/historymanifesto.cambridge.jpg\" alt=\"historymanifesto.cambridge\" width=\"254\" height=\"400\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/historymanifesto.cambridge.jpg 412w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/historymanifesto.cambridge-191x300.jpg 191w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 254px) 100vw, 254px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 254px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 254\/400;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Or at least, this is how I am reading the claims of academic historians. Take <a href=\"http:\/\/www.joguldi.com\/\">Jo Guldi<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/scholar.harvard.edu\/armitage\/home\">David Armitage<\/a>, authors of the recent <a href=\"http:\/\/historymanifesto.cambridge.org\/files\/9814\/2788\/1923\/historymanifesto_5Feb2015.pdf\">History Manifesto<\/a>. Guldi and Armitage, both professional historians involved in the advocacy of their discipline, are <a href=\"http:\/\/historymanifesto.cambridge.org\/\">spearheading a movement to upgrade the discipline of history<\/a> to the status of policy advisory. Historians, Guldi and Armitage argue, are specialists trained in the analysis of social change through time (diachrony). As such, in a world stuck in chronic short-termism, with political elites incapable of fathoming the long-term crises that cloud the future of humankind &#8211; climate change, global governance and inequality &#8211; historians are poised to be increasingly in demand in the near future, by virtue of their unique training and skill-set.<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, Guldi and Armitage\u2019s advocacy for historians as courtiers to power &#8211; or as they put it, as a \u201ccounter-balancing\u201d to the domination of near-sighted social scientists in elite think tanks &#8211; is controversial, if not questionable. And I would argue that their appeal for the \u201cniche expertise\u201d of professional historians is, on a deeper level, symptomatic of the erosion of the humanities <em>as a tradition<\/em> in the modern university, and in our wider culture. Put in starker terms: if you peer under the hood of their <em>apologia<\/em>, you will see that Guldi and Armitage are advocating for nothing less than the absorption of history into the regime of Big Data.<\/p>\n<p>The tell-tale sign of this is their treatment of Big Data as a \u201ctool\u201d &#8211; for research, analysis, and experimental modelling. Certainly, Big Data \u201ctools\u201d are poised to enrich the possibilities for comparative history-making. There is, however, no reflexive treatment of the impacts of Big Data on historical <em>thinking<\/em> in the History Manifesto. Guldi and Armitage\u2019s argue that the \u201ctools\u201d of Big Data will bolster long-held habits of historians, and enhance their relevancy. To be sure, comparative analysis of massive and diverse sets of historical data will allow historians to propose, as a matter of course, multiple theories of causality. Thus as interpreters of \u201ccomplex historical data\u201d, historians <em>as social scientists <\/em>will be uniquely positioned to help policy makers interpret complex cause and effect.<\/p>\n<p>But let\u2019s be frank. At bottom, Guldi and Armitage are making the case for a new type of futurology, <em>avec les historiens<\/em>. To them historians are the type of data experts best equipped to make judicious, \u201cnon-reductive\u201d, use of Big Data. Certainly, this is a sincere, if not clever way of reinvigorating a discipline finding itself with less and less of a basis for claiming that it is engaged in \u201cfundamental\u201d (i.e. non-utilitarian) research. But lest I repeat myself, these appeals will also further push the academic discipline of history over the edge of the social science and humanities divide, squarely in favor of future \u201cgovernance\u201d disciplines.<\/p>\n<p>Historians beware: Big Data is a not mere \u201ctool\u201d, it is a Zeitgeist.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Big Data: Sink or Swim<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/logentries-big-data-e1428449730989.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-5216 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/logentries-big-data-300x173.jpg\" alt=\"logentries-big-data\" width=\"300\" height=\"173\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 300px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 300\/173;\" \/><\/a>In response to such capitulations, I would like to argue for a new way of broaching the knowledge divide that has long beset the discipline of history, for the reasons already outlined above. In the next articles of this series, I will go straight for the Big Data jugular. Like my Play the Past forebears, I will take an experimental stance and play with the Zeitgeist, in order to present the humanities from a position of strength, rather than weakness.<\/p>\n<p>The program will go like this.<\/p>\n<p>By looking at three \u201ccase studies\u201d of game design around the theme of human survival, I will argue that there is an irrepressible need for story &#8211; or \u201cnarrative\u201d &#8211; implicit to all social sciences. Specifically, I will demonstrate that a strange \u201creturn of narrative\u201d is brewing in Big Data-boosted history, resulting from having pushed the quantification gambit to its limits. And, as I\u2019ve said above: there\u2019s no better place to see this than in digital games.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Because of the way the social sciences design their experiments. In a nutshell: in order to have explanatory value, the aggregate behaviors studied by social science must first be &#8220;packaged&#8221; into abstract concepts &#8211; or <a href=\"http:\/\/https:\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ideal_type\">to use Max Weber\u2019s term: <em>ideal-types<\/em><\/a>, so that they may be tested, as hypotheses, against the mess of real-world behavior. Put simply: sociology, economics and statistics cannot function (i.e. explain real-world phenomena) without transforming \u201csocial actors\u201d into aggregate concepts, or ideal-types: \u201cgender\u201d, \u201csocial class\u201d, occupational types, age groupings, etc.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe title=\"7.3 The Ideal Type\" width=\"1440\" height=\"810\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Qtbe0jQxK0I?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen src=\"about:blank\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This is where digital games come into the equation, and survival games in particular. The core of any digital game is <a href=\"http:\/\/askagamedev.tumblr.com\/post\/101776602061\/progression-or-skill-tree-systems-the-type-you\">the gameplay loop<\/a> &#8211; the set of actions a player must repeat over and over again, with incremental difficulty, in order to master the game, or complete its objectives, or story. Going forward, my central hypothesis will be that the gameplay loops of <em>realism-oriented <\/em> <em>survival games<\/em> generate stories in ways that mirror the construction of ideal-types in social science. If survival game protagonists have character traits bestowed upon them for fictional purposes, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=2594\" target=\"_blank\">problem space<\/a> in which they evolve in realistic survival games renders them anonymous by virtue of both the survival theme, and the inherent replayability of games. Result: out of survival \u201csandbox\u201d gameplay emerges\u00a0an abstracted, archetypal character: \u201cthe survivor\u201d. This is history, degree zero : <em>someone<\/em> must survive in order for stories to live. Yet, the reduction of story to mere &#8220;acts of survival&#8221; renders anonymity back onto the player, where individual stories dissolve into an aggregate form.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, the reader may reasonably object that all games contain gameplay loops, and that ludic problem-spaces can be themed in fictional guises that don&#8217;t require realism. What does the <em>survival<\/em> theme have to offer in particular that fantasy or science-fiction genres don&#8217;t?<\/p>\n<p>The answer has to do with historical method. More specifically, the very conditions that make a historical subject possible, to begin with. Survival sandbox simulations hard-code the basic scenario that is irreducible to all historical writing. The fail state of a survival sandbox game means that there is no survivor, and therefore no historical subject. Success means that players are able to master the problem-space &#8211; specific to each survival game &#8211; as a <em>generic<\/em> story of survival. And the <em>realism<\/em> of the problem-space, in turn, brings to the fore an awareness of the contingencies of historical experience. In other words, players that &#8220;beat the survival game&#8221; access the dignity of the historical subject: the privilege of telling one&#8217;s story, as an individual, group, or culture.<\/p>\n<p>History, in a nutshell.<\/p>\n<p>To recap: I am proposing that <strong>survival simulators<\/strong> can be seen as social science laboratories that model the <em>conditions<\/em> for human storytelling, in aggregate form. Surviving potential annihilation and carrying the memory of the ordeal forward take on a generic, anonymous aspect because of the replayability of survival sims. Their relevance to historical method are thus inscribed in their very premise.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5479\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5479\" style=\"width: 354px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/TWoM_confront.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-5479 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/TWoM_confront-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"This War of Mine (2014, 11 Bit Studios)\" width=\"354\" height=\"200\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/TWoM_confront-300x170.jpg 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/TWoM_confront.jpg 610w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 354px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 354\/200;\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5479\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">This War of Mine (2014, 11 Bit Studios)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In the next three articles, I will examine three different examples of digital storytelling in simulations that posit the problem of survival (and extinction) as their core narrative premise. To this end, I will analyze each survival \u201csandbox\u201d (or problem-space) from the standpoint of narrative design.\u00a0 I will then tie the thematic features of each survival sub-genre to a type of aggregate actor\u00a0 &#8211; solitary, small group, or culture group &#8211; in order to connect the different story forms to experimental models in the social sciences. My aim, once again, is to demonstrate how the storytelling qualities of digital media mirror the Big Data Zeitgeist, to use the \u201cmicro\u201d scale to shed light on the \u201cmacro\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>To say the least, this is a peculiar outcome to the quantification craze we are currently experiencing in our culture. If you\u2019ve followed me all the way here, then perhaps you\u2019ll agree with me that we need to shed much-needed light on our relationship to data, and \u201cinformation\u201d (i.e. simulation) technology. If anything, it is our irrepressible need for pattern, and meaning &#8211; the real \u201csurvival\u201d hero in this story &#8211; which needs to be rescued from the clutches of Big Data. And if only experts &#8211; professional historians included &#8211; are to be equipped to swim in the maelstrom of numbers, then let\u2019s just say that we haven\u2019t learned a thing from all these years of experimenting in the digital playpen.<\/p>\n<p>Let Big Data take over, it will make us into data points, into <em>social objects<\/em>. And for the moment, sadly, we seem unperturbed at the loss of our subjecthood, in exchange for these \u201cgains\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/crowd_vs_big_data.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-5481 lazyload\" data-src=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/crowd_vs_big_data.jpeg\" alt=\"crowd_vs_big_data\" width=\"533\" height=\"300\" data-srcset=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/crowd_vs_big_data.jpeg 800w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/crowd_vs_big_data-300x169.jpeg 300w, http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/crowd_vs_big_data-768x432.jpeg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 533px) 100vw, 533px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 533px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 533\/300;\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong>References<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Guldi, Jo and Armitage, David, <em>The History Manifesto<\/em> (2014)<\/p>\n<p>Munslow, Alun, <em>The Future of History<\/em> (2010)<\/p>\n<p>Prost, Antoine, <em>Douze le\u00e7ons d\u2019histoire<\/em> (2010)<\/p>\n<p>Romanyshyn, Robert D., <em>Technology as Symptom and Dream<\/em> (1989)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This article is part one of a four-part series on the future of quantification in history. For the thematic introduction to the series, please click here. &nbsp; At face value, it might appear to the casual reader of Play the Past, that the main focus of this blog is the<span class=\"more-link\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/?p=5451\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":5502,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15],"tags":[425,433,37,21,380],"coauthors":[393],"class_list":["entry","author-roy","post-5451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-articles","tag-big-data","tag-historical-research","tag-historical-thinking","tag-simulation","tag-survival-sandbox"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/library_tunnel.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5451"}],"version-history":[{"count":43,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5968,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5451\/revisions\/5968"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5451"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.playthepast.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcoauthors&post=5451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}